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Este é o centro da vida do Miguel Cunha Duarte na Internet. A partir deste site pode ter acesso aos conteúdos que tenho espalhados pela rede, saber quem eu sou, contatar-me e descobrir em que redes sociais estou presente.

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Recent tweets

“We are exactly at that moment in Europe where we need to go from a confederation to a federation by the process of the creation of a federal budget, exactly as the United States did. Therefore, while we may discuss each of the different crises - in Italy, Portugal, wherever - the question is much simpler: If there is not in due time, in the next twelve months, real progress [with creating a] federal budget, euro bonds, and strict coordination of nation-state budgets, the euro will disappear; Germany will get out.”

Europe Needs A Federal Budget

Tags economia união europeia política

 Source Business Insider

“In view of the severity of the crisis, further exacerbated by the downgrading of the US ranking, European leaders have got to stop making quick fix-it solutions to the very serious debt crisis. Rather than prepare the next plan for Spain or Italy, they must tackle the root cause of the problem. Their obfuscation and policy of too little too late has provided no lasting solution and only caused great pain to the tax payer and to European competitiveness. It is indeed scandalous that it is the markets that are forcing the long needed changes and not political courage and vision.”

Press Release

Tags economia eldr união europeia euro

 Source alde.eu

A verdade sobre o “haircut” Grego

Vale a pena ler este artigo sobre o suposto corte de cabelo à dívida pública grega. O mesmo confirma aquilo que eu pensei quando olhei para os planos apresentados na altura: praticamente não se fez qualquer redução em termos efetivos e os bancos saem deste negócio muito bem.

To correctly measure the service and reduction of debt, these must be compared with the 5.02 percent average interest rate that Greece currently pays on its bonds. When this is taken into account, even the much-touted 20 percent principal reduction on the discount bond option is much lower on a present-value basis, because the coupon rates are higher on the new bond than on the old bonds.

The 30-year discount-bond option, which would swap new debt for existing obligations at 80 percent of face value, for example, has a coupon starting at 6 percent, rising to 6.5 percent in year five and 6.8 percent in years 10 through 30. Greece realizes only 22 basis points of interest savings in the first five years and will have negative annual interest savings for the next 25 years.
Small Discount

Even after taking into account that Greece pays back only 80 percent of the original principal in year 30, the present value of debt falls only 1.78 percent under this option. This is a far cry from the 20 percent discount applauded by many analysts. And, to entice bondholder participation, Greece must borrow an additional 26.10 percent of the original face value to purchase the zero-coupon bonds’ principal collateral for the discount security.

É claro que tendo a Alemanha e a França a mandar (e os políticos, populistas que conhecemos por detrás), dificilmente se conseguiria melhor. A mim parece-me que cada vez é mais tempo de a Grécia fazer contas à vida (ou ameaçar fazê-lo) e impor um verdadeiro corte à sua dívida, que lhe permita resolver os seus problemas e retomar o crescimento. Os bancos dos outros países, nomeadamente a Alemanha e a França irão ficar em graves dificuldades (até porque a seguir virão outros países), mas isso, é um problema que a Alemanha e a França terão que resolver.

Tags política união europeia europa economia